Contributed
As we slowly and slowly approach the next general elections, events and movements are pointing to the undeniable fact that in 2023,the APC is going to be fighting intensively to defend the North as SLPP has now established footholds in significant areas in that region.
Literally, the stage is now set for SLPP to play APC half field in 2023. Unfolding results from all 6 byelections yesterday have not only validated our projection, but has reinforced it. Those in the APC who are highly inclined in election analysis have already started to panic when they too collated the figures secured from all the byelections. The result they generated from their own research also told them that what SLPP planners put out on social media is true
Slpp secured 51% and Apc 49% of all votes cast. They were devastated with these figures largely due to the bitter realization that majority of the byelections took place in the North. They were astounded when they realized that while SLPP blew them out in Kenema district, SLPP either competed with them in the North or won. Another devastation that hit them was when the results from a ward byelection from the strategic precinct of Tambaka in Karene district showed SLPP actually winning the seat.
To put this whole thing into an analytical context, APC has not moved the needle in terms of voting strength since they lost the 2018 elections. They are just revolving around the same mathematical box which has signified nothing- No inroads in the South and East and SLPP has dislodged them from a whole district in the North by winning a district council election (Falaba).
With all these events playing out, where then will APC use as a springboard to unseat the SLPP?, We may want to ask. Way den win byelection nar den yone stronghold back, den pull debul and dance. Majority of their supporters have no clue how general elections work. Watin normor den sabi, den don win.
This is the same scenario that played out in 2018 when APC won majority of the seats in the north west region but still lost the presidency. This can be attributed to the fact that the country has a voting pattern. If APC don’t try to create significant shifts in that pattern of voting, den go win parliamentary seats oh, are nor deny, but it will be very difficult for them to win any presidential election.
We watched the six byelection results yesterday carefully and we are safely concluding that as long as the country continues to vote this way, e lek nar 100 elections, SLPP go always defeat APC in the presidential race.
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